Trade group The City UK might have been advised to have postponed the issue of its report ‘Exporting from across Britain’.
The paper looks at the contribution the regions make to Britain’s brilliant success in the export of financial and professional services.
So far, Donald Trump’s tariff war has focused on physical goods, such as steel, aluminium and cars, and aimed at levelling the playing field for American firms. Financial services have escaped notice.
The City UK’s research shows that despite Britain’s dull growth rate, in the period 2018-22, financial and professional service exports on average climbed by 11 per cent a year.
Imagine how prosperous Britain would be if the same stupendous expansion was shared across other sectors.
In 2023, the UK recorded a surplus of £78.9billion on invisible exports.
Exports: So far Donald Trump’s tariff war has focused on physical goods, such as steel, aluminium and cars, and aimed at levelling the playing field for American firms
Data suggests that much of this gain was with America. It is not just champagne swiggers in City bars who are the winners. Some 47 per cent of the services exported originate in the regions.
As Britain and the US seek some kind of trade accommodation, the focus largely has been on a digital accord lowering the tax charge.
Republicans in Congress, representing rural and farmland areas, are demanding the White House wins greater access for US farmers to Britain.
The City UK wants financial services to gain more access to Switzerland, India and the Arabian Gulf through free trade agreements. The US doesn’t get a mention because we are doing fine without one.
Keir Starmer needs to be cautious about how wide his vaunted ‘economic deal’ with the US President stretches.
Known unknowns
Markets have been perturbed about Trump’s trade machinations because of uncertainty about the goals.
This stems from conflicting voices. He regards tariffs as a negotiating tool, forcing other countries to abolish barriers. He also wants to see supply chains shift back to the US.
US trade adviser Peter Navarro argues tariffs offer a revenue opportunity and, if left in place, a universal 20 per cent levy on all imports could raise $6trillion over the next decade.
That could then be used to fund a big tax cut for America’s middle-class – the equivalent of Rachel Reeves’ ‘working people’.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposes each trading partner gets its own ‘tariff’ number depending on negotiations.
It is this approach which has given the UK and India confidence that they can escape the full blast of the White House wrath.
Stephen Moore, an economist at the Heritage Foundation, the think-tank closest to Trumpian thinking, believes the outcome the President desires is to lower tariffs rather than raise them.
It wants to see Trump focus on supply-side tax cuts. Conflicting goals, reshoring manufacturing and raising revenues have perplexed Wall Street.
It has driven hedge funds, central banks and speculators to take a breather from the ‘magnificent seven’ tech firms and trust in gold and European equities.
Liberation Day will require analysts to make new calls. But the miasma should be lifted.
Stanley Kalms
The death of Dixons founder Lord Kalms, aged 93, marks the end of an era.
Kalms was a retail titan who, along with other corporate leaders such as Lord (Arnold) Weinstock and Lord King of British Airways, enjoyed a productive relationship with Margaret Thatcher.
His foresight at Dixons saw Kalms embrace new technology, including mobile telephony, with enthusiasm.
He also had an appetite for takeovers, most notably for Currys in 1984, when there was a lengthy dispute over price.
The son of Jewish immigrants, Kalms was a fervent believer in business ethics, as well as a force for modernisation in Anglo-Jewry. I came to know him personally, dining at his home with the good and the great from business and diplomacy.
In 2005, Kalms and I were privileged to take part in a BBC Rosh Hashanah (Jewish New Year) broadcast on corporate ethics filmed in the then flagship Dixons store on Oxford Street.
Kalms’ rich legacy includes the survival of Currys. It remains a force long after many other high street electronic chains have disappeared in an online world.
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