Britain’s biggest oil firms are set to see their profits drop by nearly $4 billion next week after Donald Trump’s tariff chaos caused a slump in global energy prices.
Profits at BP are expected to have fallen to $1.6 billion in the first three months of 2025 from $2.7 billion in the same period the previous year, when it reports quarterly figures on Tuesday.
Shell’s earnings are forecast to have dropped to $5.1 billion in the first quarter of this year from $7.7 billion in the first three months of 2024 when it delivers its results on Friday, according to estimates from market data site Refinitiv.
The profit drop comes as global oil prices have steadily declined due to growing fears of a slowdown in demand from many countries but particularly from China, a major oil consumer.
All at sea: Britain’s biggest oil firms are set to see their profits drop by nearly $4 billion next week after Donald Trump’s tariff chaos caused a slump in global energy prices
The price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, has fallen around 12 per cent so far this year and is trading at about $67 a barrel.
Prices had been slowing falling from January on, but they declined sharply earlier this month after Trump unleashed a swathe of tariff measures as part of his ‘liberation day’ announcements designed to reorder global trade.
It sparked concerns that mass disruption to global supply chains would reduce shipping and other forms of travel. In turn, this would dent demand for fuel.
On the slide: Shares in both BP and Shell are down heavily
The issue has been exacerbated by the Opec+ cartel of oil-rich states, which includes Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United Arab Emirates, deciding to increase the amount of crude oil pumped from their wells. This is creating a glut of supply.
Weak oil prices present a potential headache for BP as it tries to push through plans to pivot its business back towards fossil fuels. It is reversing a shift towards green energy masterminded by its previous boss Bernard Looney.
Chief executive Murray Auchincloss is coming under immense pressure from activist investors, including hard-nosed US firm Elliott Management, to boost performance. His task is likely to be made harder by cheap oil.
The company’s chairman Helge Lund has already announced he will step down next year. But reports emerged last week that Elliott was now targeting BP’s head of strategy Giulia Chierchia, who was hired by Looney in 2020 and is seen as one of the key architects of the firm’s ill-fated shift to green energy. Shell is facing its own challenges as it tries to ramp up fossil fuel output under boss Wael Sawan.
Earlier this month, the company lowered its oil and gas production forecast for the first quarter as unexpected maintenance work and cyclones hit output from some of its wells.
Sawan has pioneered Shell’s own pivot towards oil and gas, slashing the group’s spending on green energy in a bid to boost its value and compete with US rivals such as Chevron and Exxon Mobil.
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